Money Magazine's 2014 Economic Outlook

Money Magazine’s 2014 Economic Outlook

In Money magazine’s Make More in 2014, you’ll find next year’s economic outlook, where to find opportunities in stocks and bonds, the best moves for homebuyers, sellers and owners, and strategies for boosting your career. This installment: How to play the housing market.

The good news for housing is that price gains next year are expected to be only about half as strong as in 2013, when sellers stayed on the sidelines. Yes, that’s good news. “For a sustainable recovery you want to see more balance between buyers and sellers,” says David Stiff, chief economist at CoreLogic Case-Shiller, which is forecasting a 6.8% rise in the median home value for 2014.

Inventory is already improving. Nationwide, the number of homes for sale in September rose 1.8% vs. a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the first increase since late 2011. In Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Orlando, inventory was 10% or higher than a year earlier.

“It will still be a sellers’ market in 2014, given how far we have before inventory is back to normal,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia, noting the supply of homes in September was still about 15% below historical norms. “But it will not be as extreme as 2013,” he says.

Buyers will also enjoy an advantage next year as real estate investors are expected to be less of a factor. Why? In an improving market, there are fewer distressed homes, which they covet.

BUYERS

Waiting for more inventory can make sense if you have a dream home in mind. But in 2014 there will be a price for delay — 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are forecast to climb from today’s 4.5% to more than 5%.